multi-chain-bot
a research instrument that happens to trade
Decryption happens in your browser — the passphrase is never sent anywhere.
multi-chain-bot
Current outlook
Latest news
Notifications & Messages
Project status
Current theses
Decision checks
Calibration
Predicted confidence vs. realized hit-rate. Points on the dashed diagonal are well-calibrated; above it under-confident, below it over-confident. Dot size ∝ sample size.
Assets
Deposits (hot wallets)
Schedule
Market (daily)
History
NFT summary
Simple thesis
NFTs by wallet
Calibration by strategy and horizon
A single Brier score cannot say which strategy is miscalibrated. Compare stated confidence against realized hit-rate: consistently higher stated than realized is over-confidence. Slices with a small n are noise — they are ordered by sample size.
Resolved theses — the track record
Every thesis that has already been graded, newest first. Brier is per-thesis: 0 is a perfect call, 0.25 is a coin-flip stated at 50%, and 1.0 is confidently wrong.
Staking
What's earning, what isn't
APY figures are indicative estimates, not quotes. Where there is enough history, the measured rate is shown next to the expected one — that comparison is the point.
Proposed actions
Proposals only. Nothing here signs: staking goes through the same approval path as any other on-chain action, and a fee reserve is always held back so a position can be exited.
Run it — time-boxed autonomy
This page is static and holds no keys — that is deliberate, since anything embedded here
would be readable by anyone who opens it. The signing key lives in GitHub Actions secrets,
so the run happens there. You still never touch a terminal: the button opens the workflow,
you set the window and type DELEGATE, and it runs.
Delegation is the safest possible first live action: a Tezos SET_DELEGATE
cannot move funds, so the money at risk is the ~$0.01 fee, not the balance. The mandate
auto-expires and is revoked when the job ends, and the kill switch overrides it.
Arbitrage viability
Earning yield on idle holdings is a different question and lives in the Staking tab, where it is measured from real on-chain state.
Arbitrage viability by chain
Break-even is the spread a round trip must beat at that size, after both legs of DEX fees and slippage plus fixed gas. Gas is the term that decides it for a small book.